Cape Town Crime Trends: Q3 2025/26 Quarter-on-Quarter Analysis

Cape Town recorded 66,921 crimes in Q3 2025/26 (October-December 2025), up 2.0% from 65,593 in the same quarter a year earlier. The raw count increased, but the picture is more complex than a single number suggests.

When crimes are weighted by severity using the Crime Harm Index (where murder carries 5,475 harm-days and shoplifting carries 2), aggregate weighted harm across the metro decreased by 18.5%. The divergence between raw counts and weighted harm tells a specific story: serious violent crimes fell while lower-severity detection-dependent offences rose.

This post presents the data. It does not attribute causation. Crime trends are driven by complex, intersecting factors that a single quarter of statistics cannot isolate.

Data source: SAPS quarterly crime statistics, Q3 2025/2026 (October-December 2025), compared against Q3 2024/2025 (October-December 2024). All figures are reported crimes at precinct level. StreetSignal maps 734 of 744 suburbs to 63 SAPS precincts. Full methodology: streetsignal.co.za/methodology/.

What changed: crime categories

The most significant movements were in two directions simultaneously.

Categories that decreased (contact and property crimes):

Category	Q3 2024	Q3 2025	Change
Burglary at non-residential premises	656	469	-28.5%
Robbery at residential premises	465	352	-24.3%
Carjacking	642	537	-16.4%
Robbery with aggravating circumstances	4,689	3,960	-15.5%
Burglary at residential premises	2,926	2,500	-14.6%
Theft out of/from motor vehicle	3,639	3,290	-9.6%
Murder	937	915	-2.3%
Attempted murder	767	743	-3.1%

Categories that increased (predominantly detection-dependent):

Category	Q3 2024	Q3 2025	Change
Drug-related crime	13,474	16,922	+25.6%
Illegal possession of firearms/ammunition	609	776	+27.4%
Driving under the influence	1,239	1,454	+17.4%
Crimen injuria	1,153	1,260	+9.3%
Theft of motor vehicle	828	896	+8.2%

A note on detection-dependent crimes: Drug arrests, firearms seizures, and DUI arrests are classified as “detection-dependent” because they primarily reflect policing activity rather than civilian reporting. An increase in drug-related crime does not necessarily mean more drug use; it may mean more police operations targeting drugs. This distinction is important when interpreting the data.

Murder: 915 lives lost

Murder decreased from 937 to 915 (-2.3%). Attempted murder decreased from 767 to 743 (-3.1%). These are the figures behind the Western Cape Government’s reported 3.4% provincial murder decrease.

A 2.3% decrease in murder is a factual improvement in the data. It is also 915 people who were killed in a single quarter in one metro. Both of these statements are true simultaneously.

Station-level changes

Of 63 SAPS precincts in the Cape Town metro, 27 recorded declining weighted harm (43%), 18 recorded stable levels (29%), and 18 recorded increasing weighted harm (29%).

Stations with the largest decreases in raw crime:

Station	Q3 2024	Q3 2025	Change	Suburbs served
Strandfontein	313	240	-23.3%	Strandfontein, Pelikan Park
Mowbray	236	195	-17.4%	Mowbray, Rosebank
Ocean View	344	287	-16.6%	Ocean View
Rondebosch	250	209	-16.4%	Rondebosch, Rosebank
Khayelitsha	2,035	1,737	-14.6%	Khayelitsha, Makhaza
Athlone	1,367	1,202	-12.1%	Athlone, Bridgetown

Stations with the largest increases in raw crime:

Station	Q3 2024	Q3 2025	Change	Suburbs served
Table View	1,186	1,470	+23.9%	Table View, Bloubergstrand
Elsies River	1,113	1,337	+20.1%	Elsies River
Bishop Lavis	1,442	1,718	+19.1%	Bishop Lavis
Ravensmead	789	934	+18.4%	Ravensmead
Lwandle	700	825	+17.9%	Lwandle
Mfuleni	2,385	2,733	+14.6%	Mfuleni

These are raw crime counts, not rates per capita. A station serving 100,000 residents recording 1,470 crimes has a different per-capita profile than one serving 10,000 residents recording 287 crimes. See individual suburb pages on StreetSignal for per-capita safety indices.

Why raw counts and weighted harm can tell different stories

Bishop Lavis recorded a 19.1% increase in raw crime counts but is classified as “Stable” on StreetSignal’s trend indicator. This is because StreetSignal’s trend is based on weighted harm (Crime Harm Index), not raw counts. If the increase was driven by lower-severity detection crimes (drugs, DUI) while serious contact crimes stayed flat, the weighted harm can remain stable even as raw counts rise.

This is a deliberate methodological choice. Raw crime counts treat a shoplifting and a murder as equal events. The Crime Harm Index does not. Neither approach is objectively correct; they answer different questions. StreetSignal presents both the harm-weighted safety index and the raw crime data on every suburb page.

What this data does not tell you

Underreporting. SAPS data reflects reported crimes only. Stats SA’s Victims of Crime Survey consistently shows that a significant proportion of crimes go unreported, particularly sexual offences, assault, and theft. A suburb with low reported crime may have low actual crime, or it may have low reporting rates. The data cannot distinguish between these.
Causation. A decrease at a specific station does not mean a specific intervention worked. A single quarter is insufficient to establish a trend. Crime statistics are influenced by policing intensity, reporting practices, socioeconomic conditions, seasonal patterns, and factors that precinct-level data cannot capture.
Individual safety. A safety index is a statistical summary. It does not predict what will happen to any individual in any specific location. A suburb with a safety score of 90/100 still has crime. A suburb with a score of 10/100 still has residents who live without incident.
Population accuracy. Per-capita rates depend on population denominators. SAPS station populations are estimates that may not reflect actual residential populations, particularly in areas with high transient populations or recent informal settlement growth.